Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JANOME Corporation (6445.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$609.97 - $1,061.81$803.39
Multi-Stage$2,155.17 - $2,378.44$2,264.59
Blended Fair Value$1,533.99
Current Price$1,120.00
Upside36.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.73%0.00%40.8026.7226.7742.5716.0215.9110.5910.530.000.00
YoY Growth--52.70%-0.21%-37.11%165.74%0.70%50.26%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.64%3.86%4.35%5.95%2.12%3.50%2.32%1.49%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)867.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)639.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.40108.3865.03
Cash Retained (M)639.00639.00639.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.40-108.38-65.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.60530.63573.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.0418.0418.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.8129.4131.82
LTM Dividend per Share12.6412.6412.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.8129.4131.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.4542.0544.45
WACC / Discount Rate4.66%4.66%4.66%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Fair Value$609.97$803.39$1,061.81
Upside / Downside-45.54%-28.27%-5.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)867.00862.29857.61852.95848.32843.71869.02
Payout Ratio26.30%39.04%51.78%64.52%77.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.00336.62444.06550.32655.41759.34803.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.66%4.66%4.66%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)318.39321.63324.86
Year 2 PV (M)397.26405.37413.57
Year 3 PV (M)465.66480.00494.62
Year 4 PV (M)524.55546.19568.49
Year 5 PV (M)574.83604.62635.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,600.7838,497.6440,472.34
Equity Value (M)38,881.4840,855.4542,909.52
Shares Outstanding (M)18.0418.0418.04
Fair Value$2,155.17$2,264.59$2,378.44
Upside / Downside92.43%102.20%112.36%

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