Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. (6305.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25,085.12 - $81,742.14$76,604.35
Multi-Stage$10,848.97 - $11,867.62$11,348.97
Blended Fair Value$43,976.66
Current Price$4,734.00
Upside828.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.94%9.00%129.94144.87114.9454.9834.1992.9191.9644.0114.1359.91
YoY Growth---10.31%26.04%109.06%60.80%-63.20%1.03%108.97%211.51%-76.42%9.14%
Dividend Yield--3.02%3.29%2.85%1.83%1.01%3.12%3.17%1.22%0.50%4.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87,431.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,256.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)50,175.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17,486.2010,928.886,557.33
Cash Retained (M)50,175.0050,175.0050,175.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-17,486.20-10,928.88-6,557.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)32,688.8039,246.1343,617.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.72212.72212.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share153.67184.50205.05
LTM Dividend per Share175.14175.14175.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share153.67184.50205.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend328.82359.64380.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25,085.12$76,604.35$81,742.14
Upside / Downside429.89%1,518.17%1,626.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87,431.0093,114.0299,166.43105,612.24112,477.04119,788.05123,381.69
Payout Ratio42.61%52.09%61.57%71.04%80.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,256.0048,502.6361,053.9375,031.9690,569.19107,809.24114,128.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44,953.1345,379.2345,805.32
Year 2 PV (M)52,444.8453,443.7754,452.12
Year 3 PV (M)59,735.1761,449.9563,197.24
Year 4 PV (M)66,828.0769,398.0872,041.53
Year 5 PV (M)73,727.4277,288.4880,985.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,010,058.932,107,145.532,207,947.86
Equity Value (M)2,307,747.562,414,105.042,524,429.90
Shares Outstanding (M)212.72212.72212.72
Fair Value$10,848.97$11,348.97$11,867.62
Upside / Downside129.17%139.73%150.69%

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