Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited (6098.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.35 - $44.35$41.56
Multi-Stage$6.85 - $7.49$7.16
Blended Fair Value$24.36
Current Price$5.98
Upside307.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.19%0.00%0.290.150.260.200.120.070.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth--102.76%-43.60%27.21%62.37%84.24%141.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.64%2.37%1.50%0.53%0.28%0.29%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)746.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)558.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)187.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.2293.2655.96
Cash Retained (M)187.14187.14187.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.22-93.26-55.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.9293.88131.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,345.923,345.923,345.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.35$41.56$44.35
Upside / Downside240.30%594.95%641.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)746.08794.57846.22901.23959.811,022.191,052.86
Payout Ratio74.92%77.93%80.95%83.97%86.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)558.94619.24685.02756.73834.87919.97973.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)576.40581.86587.32
Year 2 PV (M)593.50604.81616.22
Year 3 PV (M)610.27627.79645.64
Year 4 PV (M)626.70650.80675.59
Year 5 PV (M)642.80673.85706.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,869.0320,828.7121,825.12
Equity Value (M)22,918.7023,967.8125,055.97
Shares Outstanding (M)3,345.923,345.923,345.92
Fair Value$6.85$7.16$7.49
Upside / Downside14.54%19.79%25.23%

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