Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guobang Pharma Ltd. (605507.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.98 - $311.41$291.83
Multi-Stage$45.54 - $49.84$47.65
Blended Fair Value$169.74
Current Price$22.82
Upside643.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS41.63%0.00%0.350.650.230.600.340.060.060.080.000.00
YoY Growth---46.33%182.06%-61.58%77.48%452.07%8.65%-32.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.71%4.21%0.95%1.96%0.72%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)872.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)350.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)522.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.59109.1265.47
Cash Retained (M)522.05522.05522.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.59-109.12-65.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)347.46412.94456.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)557.50557.50557.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.371.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.98$291.83$311.41
Upside / Downside460.82%1,178.85%1,264.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)872.95929.70990.131,054.481,123.021,196.021,231.90
Payout Ratio40.20%50.16%60.12%70.08%80.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)350.90466.31595.24738.97898.861,076.421,139.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)433.61437.72441.83
Year 2 PV (M)514.68524.48534.38
Year 3 PV (M)594.14611.19628.57
Year 4 PV (M)672.01697.85724.43
Year 5 PV (M)748.31784.45821.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,424.3323,507.4324,631.99
Equity Value (M)25,387.0626,563.1227,783.17
Shares Outstanding (M)557.50557.50557.50
Fair Value$45.54$47.65$49.84
Upside / Downside99.55%108.80%118.39%

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