Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yantai North Andre Juice Co.,Ltd. (605198.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.74 - $204.53$73.72
Multi-Stage$21.33 - $23.33$22.31
Blended Fair Value$48.02
Current Price$44.41
Upside8.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.49%14.27%0.230.110.060.060.000.110.110.050.060.06
YoY Growth--107.22%92.90%2.15%0.00%-100.00%0.00%94.57%-3.41%-2.95%-2.95%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.31%0.29%0.34%0.00%0.97%0.97%0.50%0.52%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)346.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)269.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.3143.3225.99
Cash Retained (M)269.75269.75269.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.31-43.32-25.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.44226.43243.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)336.94336.94336.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.74$73.72$204.53
Upside / Downside-15.02%66.00%360.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)346.53369.06393.04418.59445.80474.78489.02
Payout Ratio22.16%35.73%49.29%62.86%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.78131.85193.75263.14340.73427.30452.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)121.16122.31123.46
Year 2 PV (M)163.61166.72169.87
Year 3 PV (M)204.19210.05216.02
Year 4 PV (M)242.97252.31261.92
Year 5 PV (M)280.00293.52307.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,175.166,473.426,783.10
Equity Value (M)7,187.087,518.337,861.93
Shares Outstanding (M)336.94336.94336.94
Fair Value$21.33$22.31$23.33
Upside / Downside-51.97%-49.76%-47.46%

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