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Poly Property Services Co., Ltd. (6049.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$494.38 - $1,078.13$1,010.37
Multi-Stage$161.48 - $176.82$169.01
Blended Fair Value$589.69
Current Price$30.24
Upside1,850.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.11%0.00%1.000.510.310.430.300.290.380.000.100.02
YoY Growth--98.41%64.92%-29.07%43.33%3.75%-23.81%0.00%-100.00%320.62%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.52%1.94%0.75%0.87%0.59%0.70%0.96%0.00%0.24%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,981.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)830.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,150.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)596.22372.63223.58
Cash Retained (M)2,150.522,150.522,150.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-596.22-372.63-223.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,554.311,777.891,926.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)549.90549.90549.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.833.233.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.511.511.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.833.233.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.344.745.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$494.38$1,010.37$1,078.13
Upside / Downside1,534.87%3,241.16%3,465.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,981.083,174.853,381.213,600.993,835.064,084.334,206.86
Payout Ratio27.86%40.29%52.72%65.14%77.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)830.551,279.101,782.462,345.842,974.943,675.903,891.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,190.591,201.881,213.16
Year 2 PV (M)1,544.311,573.721,603.41
Year 3 PV (M)1,891.781,946.092,001.42
Year 4 PV (M)2,233.092,318.972,407.30
Year 5 PV (M)2,568.322,692.372,821.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,371.4283,205.0987,185.48
Equity Value (M)88,799.5292,938.1297,231.96
Shares Outstanding (M)549.90549.90549.90
Fair Value$161.48$169.01$176.82
Upside / Downside434.01%458.90%484.72%

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