Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Master Logistics Co., Ltd. (603967.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.17 - $148.68$139.34
Multi-Stage$22.51 - $24.60$23.53
Blended Fair Value$81.44
Current Price$11.13
Upside631.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.80%7.93%0.550.480.410.300.290.300.240.240.390.25
YoY Growth--13.19%16.56%40.35%1.93%-3.27%22.55%-0.01%-37.85%57.97%-2.38%
Dividend Yield--5.15%5.11%4.21%3.02%2.92%2.78%1.44%1.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)258.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.7632.3519.41
Cash Retained (M)39.5239.5239.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.76-32.35-19.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.257.1720.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)346.18346.18346.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.17$139.34$148.68
Upside / Downside458.56%1,151.93%1,235.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)258.81275.63293.55312.63332.95354.59365.23
Payout Ratio84.73%85.79%86.84%87.89%88.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.29236.45254.92274.78296.15319.13337.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)219.91221.99224.07
Year 2 PV (M)220.49224.69228.92
Year 3 PV (M)221.03227.38233.85
Year 4 PV (M)221.55230.07238.84
Year 5 PV (M)222.04232.77243.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,687.217,010.217,345.56
Equity Value (M)7,792.238,147.108,515.14
Shares Outstanding (M)346.18346.18346.18
Fair Value$22.51$23.53$24.60
Upside / Downside102.24%111.45%121.00%

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