Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd (603949.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.58 - $5.61$4.52
Multi-Stage$4.21 - $4.60$4.40
Blended Fair Value$4.46
Current Price$21.02
Upside-78.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS118.37%32.18%0.320.290.290.290.210.010.170.030.710.03
YoY Growth--10.06%0.58%0.00%40.00%3,104.00%-96.25%522.92%-96.11%2,397.45%44.45%
Dividend Yield--1.12%1.87%1.66%1.12%1.32%0.04%1.33%0.21%5.49%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.379.615.77
Cash Retained (M)55.7655.7655.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.37-9.61-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.3946.1550.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.09216.09216.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Fair Value$3.58$4.52$5.61
Upside / Downside-82.95%-78.51%-73.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.8779.1081.3983.7586.1788.6791.33
Payout Ratio27.46%39.97%52.48%64.99%77.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.1131.6242.7154.4266.7879.8084.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate1.90%2.90%3.90%
Year 1 PV (M)28.4728.7529.03
Year 2 PV (M)34.6335.3136.00
Year 3 PV (M)39.7240.9042.11
Year 4 PV (M)43.8845.6347.43
Year 5 PV (M)47.2249.5852.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)715.29751.08788.29
Equity Value (M)909.20951.25994.89
Shares Outstanding (M)216.09216.09216.09
Fair Value$4.21$4.40$4.60
Upside / Downside-79.98%-79.06%-78.10%

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