Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industries Co.,Ltd. (603938.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.80 - $8.07$5.40
Multi-Stage$2.74 - $3.00$2.87
Blended Fair Value$4.13
Current Price$14.33
Upside-71.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.38%53.06%0.080.240.130.050.060.060.080.070.150.00
YoY Growth---66.94%83.79%154.23%-15.17%-5.47%-20.00%6.68%-50.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%1.66%0.54%0.19%0.56%0.70%0.80%0.54%2.70%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.489.675.80
Cash Retained (M)70.1770.1770.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.48-9.67-5.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.6960.5064.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)382.36382.36382.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.80$5.40$8.07
Upside / Downside-73.47%-62.32%-43.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.3882.4187.7793.4799.55106.02109.20
Payout Ratio9.32%25.46%41.59%57.73%73.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.2120.9836.5153.9673.5395.42101.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.9019.0719.25
Year 2 PV (M)29.6130.1730.74
Year 3 PV (M)39.4240.5541.70
Year 4 PV (M)48.3850.2452.15
Year 5 PV (M)56.5459.2762.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)855.91897.25940.17
Equity Value (M)1,048.741,096.551,146.12
Shares Outstanding (M)382.36382.36382.36
Fair Value$2.74$2.87$3.00
Upside / Downside-80.86%-79.99%-79.08%

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