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Zhejiang Xinao Textiles Inc. (603889.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.99 - $120.08$112.54
Multi-Stage$18.85 - $20.62$19.72
Blended Fair Value$66.13
Current Price$6.80
Upside872.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.22%18.05%0.370.320.240.160.130.170.140.100.080.08
YoY Growth--13.17%35.10%49.66%26.32%-26.64%23.31%33.35%33.35%-6.43%20.79%
Dividend Yield--5.63%4.56%4.19%3.74%3.48%4.91%2.37%1.35%0.87%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)435.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)182.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.1254.4532.67
Cash Retained (M)182.95182.95182.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.12-54.45-32.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.83128.50150.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)721.45721.45721.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.99$112.54$120.08
Upside / Downside796.90%1,554.94%1,665.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)435.62463.94494.09526.21560.41596.84614.74
Payout Ratio58.00%64.40%70.80%77.20%83.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.67298.78349.82406.24468.50537.15568.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)278.34280.98283.62
Year 2 PV (M)303.59309.38315.21
Year 3 PV (M)328.44337.86347.47
Year 4 PV (M)352.87366.44380.39
Year 5 PV (M)376.89395.10414.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,961.4112,539.1513,139.00
Equity Value (M)13,601.5414,228.9114,879.70
Shares Outstanding (M)721.45721.45721.45
Fair Value$18.85$19.72$20.62
Upside / Downside177.25%190.04%203.31%

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