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Definitive Analysis

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Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. (603866.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.94 - $4.99$3.83
Multi-Stage$5.79 - $6.36$6.07
Blended Fair Value$4.95
Current Price$5.40
Upside-8.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.78%14.00%0.320.350.360.430.410.290.240.080.160.05
YoY Growth---8.22%-3.59%-14.72%3.66%39.66%25.22%178.81%-45.88%199.45%-40.03%
Dividend Yield--5.64%5.45%2.80%3.56%2.02%1.40%1.33%0.57%1.17%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)385.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)152.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.0248.1428.88
Cash Retained (M)152.56152.56152.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.02-48.14-28.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.54104.42123.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.211,600.211,600.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.22%0.78%1.78%
Fair Value$2.94$3.83$4.99
Upside / Downside-45.62%-29.09%-7.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)385.11388.13391.17394.24397.33400.45412.47
Payout Ratio60.39%66.31%72.23%78.15%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.55257.36282.55308.12334.07360.41381.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.22%0.78%1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)239.64242.05244.45
Year 2 PV (M)244.99249.92254.91
Year 3 PV (M)248.77256.32264.03
Year 4 PV (M)251.15261.37271.90
Year 5 PV (M)252.30265.20278.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,028.188,438.608,865.63
Equity Value (M)9,265.039,713.4610,179.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.211,600.211,600.21
Fair Value$5.79$6.07$6.36
Upside / Downside7.22%12.41%17.80%

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