Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

RoadMainT Co.,Ltd. (603860.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.01 - $11.28$8.93
Multi-Stage$12.60 - $13.85$13.21
Blended Fair Value$11.07
Current Price$30.60
Upside-63.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.51%-6.33%0.150.120.110.110.170.140.140.170.160.03
YoY Growth--33.88%1.11%8.74%-36.44%15.23%-0.20%-15.32%4.31%539.52%-91.45%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.41%0.37%0.44%0.78%0.55%0.49%0.49%0.72%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.775.483.29
Cash Retained (M)32.6932.6932.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.77-5.48-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.9227.2129.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.6866.6866.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Fair Value$7.01$8.93$11.28
Upside / Downside-77.11%-70.80%-63.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.8544.0744.3044.5344.7644.9946.34
Payout Ratio25.44%38.35%51.27%64.18%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.1616.9022.7128.5834.5040.4942.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)15.6415.8015.96
Year 2 PV (M)19.4519.8420.24
Year 3 PV (M)22.6523.3324.04
Year 4 PV (M)25.3026.3327.40
Year 5 PV (M)27.4828.8830.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)729.44766.84805.75
Equity Value (M)839.96881.03923.73
Shares Outstanding (M)66.6866.6866.68
Fair Value$12.60$13.21$13.85
Upside / Downside-58.83%-56.82%-54.73%

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