Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Jiangsu Luokai Mechanical &Electrical Co., Ltd . (603829.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.73 - $132.81$124.47
Multi-Stage$77.21 - $84.73$80.90
Blended Fair Value$102.68
Current Price$23.21
Upside342.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.44%7.76%0.160.230.170.150.120.120.110.080.120.07
YoY Growth---31.55%35.64%13.06%21.12%2.52%10.78%30.83%-29.60%61.36%-1.67%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.71%1.26%1.35%1.14%1.25%0.87%0.47%1.13%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7314.208.52
Cash Retained (M)66.6166.6166.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.73-14.20-8.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.8852.4058.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.16170.16170.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.73$124.47$132.81
Upside / Downside385.70%436.26%472.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.64121.02128.89137.27146.19155.69160.36
Payout Ratio41.39%51.11%60.83%70.56%80.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.0361.8678.4196.85117.36140.12148.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.9660.5361.09
Year 2 PV (M)73.6775.0776.49
Year 3 PV (M)88.2190.7493.32
Year 4 PV (M)103.60107.59111.69
Year 5 PV (M)119.91125.70131.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,693.4713,306.5713,943.13
Equity Value (M)13,138.8113,766.1914,417.43
Shares Outstanding (M)170.16170.16170.16
Fair Value$77.21$80.90$84.73
Upside / Downside232.68%248.56%265.05%

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