Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lily Group Co., Ltd. (603823.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.22 - $11.84$8.48
Multi-Stage$10.20 - $11.20$10.69
Blended Fair Value$9.59
Current Price$15.83
Upside-39.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.41%3.07%0.170.180.250.200.180.150.110.130.130.13
YoY Growth---9.14%-27.69%25.87%11.35%16.46%39.32%-12.72%-1.80%-3.32%9.26%
Dividend Yield--1.63%2.32%1.69%1.94%1.42%0.97%0.99%1.49%0.77%1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)167.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)101.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.5320.9612.57
Cash Retained (M)101.40101.40101.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.53-20.96-12.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.8780.4488.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.46415.46415.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Fair Value$6.22$8.48$11.84
Upside / Downside-60.73%-46.41%-25.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)167.66171.12174.66178.27181.95185.71191.28
Payout Ratio39.52%49.62%59.71%69.81%79.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.2684.91104.29124.45145.39167.14176.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.07%2.07%3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)79.0879.8680.65
Year 2 PV (M)90.4792.2794.09
Year 3 PV (M)100.55103.56106.64
Year 4 PV (M)109.41113.80118.33
Year 5 PV (M)117.15123.06129.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,741.203,929.994,126.32
Equity Value (M)4,237.864,442.554,655.23
Shares Outstanding (M)415.46415.46415.46
Fair Value$10.20$10.69$11.20
Upside / Downside-35.56%-32.45%-29.22%

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