Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou First Applied Material Co., Ltd. (603806.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.29 - $54.21$24.46
Multi-Stage$6.38 - $6.96$6.66
Blended Fair Value$15.56
Current Price$15.70
Upside-0.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.38%17.63%0.190.090.130.120.110.090.090.150.100.07
YoY Growth--105.42%-26.60%4.05%16.20%22.24%-2.71%-39.87%42.86%55.52%75.09%
Dividend Yield--1.38%0.46%0.43%0.30%0.41%0.98%1.15%2.43%1.34%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)737.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)691.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147.4392.1455.28
Cash Retained (M)45.1945.1945.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-147.43-92.14-55.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)-102.24-46.96-10.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,704.342,704.342,704.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.29$24.46$54.21
Upside / Downside-28.12%55.78%245.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)737.13785.05836.07890.42948.301,009.941,040.23
Payout Ratio93.87%93.10%92.32%91.55%90.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)691.95730.85771.88815.16860.81908.94962.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)673.23679.61686.00
Year 2 PV (M)654.98667.45680.05
Year 3 PV (M)637.18655.47674.11
Year 4 PV (M)619.81643.65668.17
Year 5 PV (M)602.88632.00662.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,062.0914,741.3015,446.50
Equity Value (M)17,250.1718,019.4818,817.04
Shares Outstanding (M)2,704.342,704.342,704.34
Fair Value$6.38$6.66$6.96
Upside / Downside-59.37%-57.56%-55.68%

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