Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SKSHU Paint Co.,Ltd. (603737.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$177.64 - $209.29$196.14
Multi-Stage$51.63 - $56.58$54.06
Blended Fair Value$125.10
Current Price$47.88
Upside161.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.25%20.01%0.440.300.250.420.310.170.110.070.070.05
YoY Growth--49.46%17.90%-40.22%33.74%86.02%58.45%43.71%3.90%49.93%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.25%0.42%0.93%0.43%0.73%0.92%0.75%0.69%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)665.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)297.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)367.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.0483.1549.89
Cash Retained (M)367.57367.57367.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.04-83.15-49.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.53284.42317.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)632.10632.10632.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.450.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.450.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate5.13%5.13%5.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$177.64$196.14$209.29
Upside / Downside271.02%309.64%337.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)665.21708.45754.50803.54855.77911.40938.74
Payout Ratio44.74%53.80%62.85%71.90%80.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)297.64381.11474.18577.73692.74820.26868.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.13%5.13%5.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)359.10362.50365.91
Year 2 PV (M)420.98428.99437.09
Year 3 PV (M)483.28497.15511.29
Year 4 PV (M)546.01567.01588.61
Year 5 PV (M)609.18638.60669.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,215.4231,674.8333,190.10
Equity Value (M)32,633.9634,169.0935,762.14
Shares Outstanding (M)632.10632.10632.10
Fair Value$51.63$54.06$56.58
Upside / Downside7.83%12.90%18.16%

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