Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xianhe Co.,Ltd. (603733.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.46 - $248.38$232.77
Multi-Stage$38.65 - $42.31$40.44
Blended Fair Value$136.61
Current Price$23.65
Upside477.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.69%28.17%0.660.280.320.280.320.080.240.060.050.06
YoY Growth--132.06%-11.43%12.90%-10.60%300.00%-66.67%280.25%20.87%-16.35%12.50%
Dividend Yield--2.98%1.61%1.26%1.09%1.17%0.57%1.15%0.32%0.26%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)964.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)351.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)613.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)192.96120.6072.36
Cash Retained (M)613.67613.67613.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-192.96-120.60-72.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)420.71493.07541.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)772.53772.53772.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.46$232.77$248.38
Upside / Downside443.15%884.22%950.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)964.821,027.541,094.331,165.461,241.211,321.891,361.55
Payout Ratio36.40%47.12%57.84%68.56%79.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)351.15484.14632.93799.02984.021,189.701,259.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)451.08455.36459.63
Year 2 PV (M)549.45559.91570.48
Year 3 PV (M)646.27664.82683.72
Year 4 PV (M)741.56770.08799.41
Year 5 PV (M)835.34875.69917.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,630.9727,917.2529,252.77
Equity Value (M)29,854.6631,243.1132,683.59
Shares Outstanding (M)772.53772.53772.53
Fair Value$38.65$40.44$42.31
Upside / Downside63.41%71.01%78.89%

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