Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Tianan New Material Co., Ltd. (603725.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.56 - $77.63$72.75
Multi-Stage$12.02 - $13.15$12.58
Blended Fair Value$42.66
Current Price$9.75
Upside337.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.82%18.85%0.260.150.180.190.120.100.110.090.080.03
YoY Growth--72.65%-18.76%-2.77%56.27%20.81%-12.40%29.92%15.92%117.56%-23.89%
Dividend Yield--3.86%2.03%3.60%3.38%2.03%2.23%1.61%0.92%1.07%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.6514.788.87
Cash Retained (M)64.8464.8464.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.65-14.78-8.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.1950.0655.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)302.94302.94302.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.56$72.75$77.63
Upside / Downside295.53%646.14%696.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.25125.93134.12142.84152.12162.01166.87
Payout Ratio45.17%54.13%63.10%72.07%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.4168.1784.63102.94123.27145.81154.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.5064.1064.70
Year 2 PV (M)73.4274.8276.23
Year 3 PV (M)83.1885.5788.00
Year 4 PV (M)92.7896.35100.02
Year 5 PV (M)102.22107.15112.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,225.953,381.763,543.54
Equity Value (M)3,641.053,809.753,984.77
Shares Outstanding (M)302.94302.94302.94
Fair Value$12.02$12.58$13.15
Upside / Downside23.27%28.99%34.91%

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