Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ningbo Water Meter (Group) Co., Ltd. (603700.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.02 - $17.04$11.39
Multi-Stage$36.53 - $40.37$38.41
Blended Fair Value$24.90
Current Price$11.90
Upside109.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.74%-0.30%0.310.320.810.420.240.390.240.360.240.05
YoY Growth---3.88%-60.86%94.87%74.97%-38.86%61.01%-33.67%50.35%405.56%-84.76%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.69%5.77%2.48%0.94%1.62%1.03%1.98%1.32%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.5211.586.95
Cash Retained (M)51.6851.6851.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.52-11.58-6.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1640.1144.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.72200.72200.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.30%-1.30%-0.30%
Fair Value$8.02$11.39$17.04
Upside / Downside-32.63%-4.27%43.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.6091.4090.2189.0487.8886.7389.34
Payout Ratio44.19%53.35%62.51%71.68%80.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.9248.7656.3963.8271.0478.0682.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.30%-1.30%-0.30%
Year 1 PV (M)47.2347.7148.20
Year 2 PV (M)52.9153.9955.09
Year 3 PV (M)57.9959.7961.63
Year 4 PV (M)62.5365.1267.80
Year 5 PV (M)66.5570.0273.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,044.857,412.857,796.06
Equity Value (M)7,332.057,709.508,102.43
Shares Outstanding (M)200.72200.72200.72
Fair Value$36.53$38.41$40.37
Upside / Downside206.96%222.77%239.22%

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