Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang XCC Group Co.,Ltd (603667.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.90 - $10.96$7.09
Multi-Stage$3.81 - $4.14$3.97
Blended Fair Value$5.53
Current Price$46.15
Upside-88.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.31%18.32%0.270.160.160.130.130.120.140.080.020.07
YoY Growth--65.49%-0.12%26.95%-0.36%6.25%-10.12%66.67%244.83%-67.31%43.33%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.86%1.29%1.05%1.67%1.52%1.34%0.48%0.10%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3211.456.87
Cash Retained (M)15.0515.0515.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.32-11.45-6.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.273.608.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.78373.78373.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.90$7.09$10.96
Upside / Downside-89.39%-84.64%-76.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.6297.58103.92110.67117.87125.53129.29
Payout Ratio83.57%84.86%86.14%87.43%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.5782.8089.5296.76104.56112.97119.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.7575.4676.17
Year 2 PV (M)72.9674.3575.76
Year 3 PV (M)71.2073.2575.33
Year 4 PV (M)69.4772.1474.89
Year 5 PV (M)67.7671.0474.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,066.991,118.531,172.04
Equity Value (M)1,423.151,484.771,548.62
Shares Outstanding (M)373.78373.78373.78
Fair Value$3.81$3.97$4.14
Upside / Downside-91.75%-91.39%-91.02%

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