Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Junhe Pumps Holding Co., Ltd (603617.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.53 - $24.20$8.94
Multi-Stage$2.67 - $2.92$2.79
Blended Fair Value$5.87
Current Price$7.89
Upside-25.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.32%26.31%0.060.070.140.170.070.070.060.040.010.12
YoY Growth---3.82%-51.29%-20.05%141.91%3.29%13.51%43.17%408.02%-92.71%1,735.58%
Dividend Yield--0.88%1.00%1.62%1.67%0.95%0.92%0.84%0.53%0.18%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.686.053.63
Cash Retained (M)10.0410.0410.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.68-6.05-3.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.363.996.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.78397.78397.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.53$8.94$24.20
Upside / Downside-42.62%13.31%206.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.4051.5454.8958.4662.2666.3168.30
Payout Ratio79.26%81.41%83.55%85.70%87.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.3641.9645.8750.1054.7059.6863.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.5738.9339.30
Year 2 PV (M)38.7539.4940.24
Year 3 PV (M)38.9140.0341.17
Year 4 PV (M)39.0540.5542.10
Year 5 PV (M)39.1641.0543.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)869.47911.47955.07
Equity Value (M)1,063.921,111.531,160.89
Shares Outstanding (M)397.78397.78397.78
Fair Value$2.67$2.79$2.92
Upside / Downside-66.10%-64.58%-63.01%

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