Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keeson Technology Corporation Limited (603610.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.95 - $8.25$6.41
Multi-Stage$16.95 - $18.70$17.81
Blended Fair Value$12.11
Current Price$18.83
Upside-35.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.29%0.00%1.060.060.370.310.430.210.020.020.260.02
YoY Growth--1,537.76%-82.57%19.89%-28.25%105.95%821.17%0.22%-91.37%1,042.53%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.13%0.57%3.14%2.14%2.55%1.43%0.08%0.08%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3818.9911.39
Cash Retained (M)105.04105.04105.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.38-18.99-11.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.6686.0593.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)350.28350.28350.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate4.86%4.86%4.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.95$6.41$8.25
Upside / Downside-73.70%-65.98%-56.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.90150.38148.88147.39145.92144.46148.79
Payout Ratio30.85%42.68%54.51%66.34%78.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.8664.1881.1597.78114.06130.01137.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.86%4.86%4.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)60.5961.2161.82
Year 2 PV (M)72.3273.8075.30
Year 3 PV (M)82.2584.7987.39
Year 4 PV (M)90.5794.3398.19
Year 5 PV (M)97.45102.53107.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,532.665,820.766,120.73
Equity Value (M)5,935.846,237.416,551.25
Shares Outstanding (M)350.28350.28350.28
Fair Value$16.95$17.81$18.70
Upside / Downside-10.01%-5.43%-0.67%

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