Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.,Ltd (603586.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.91 - $14.60$11.44
Multi-Stage$17.61 - $19.35$18.46
Blended Fair Value$14.95
Current Price$19.60
Upside-23.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.44%0.36%0.460.520.060.760.650.210.440.480.370.36
YoY Growth---11.77%738.71%-91.75%15.68%216.44%-52.75%-8.37%28.87%3.40%-19.56%
Dividend Yield--3.15%3.54%0.41%6.75%4.52%1.22%2.70%2.24%1.20%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.4719.6711.80
Cash Retained (M)76.8476.8476.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.47-19.67-11.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.3757.1765.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.99196.99196.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.290.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.290.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.60%0.40%1.40%
Fair Value$8.91$11.44$14.60
Upside / Downside-54.56%-41.61%-25.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.36158.00158.64159.28159.93160.58165.39
Payout Ratio51.17%58.94%66.70%74.47%82.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.5293.12105.82118.62131.52144.52152.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.60%0.40%1.40%
Year 1 PV (M)86.5387.4188.28
Year 2 PV (M)91.3893.2395.10
Year 3 PV (M)95.1998.09101.05
Year 4 PV (M)98.08102.09106.21
Year 5 PV (M)100.16105.30110.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,997.323,151.153,311.23
Equity Value (M)3,468.663,637.263,812.51
Shares Outstanding (M)196.99196.99196.99
Fair Value$17.61$18.46$19.35
Upside / Downside-10.16%-5.79%-1.25%

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