Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Rongtai Health Technology Corporation Limited (603579.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.69 - $172.58$161.74
Multi-Stage$24.64 - $26.92$25.76
Blended Fair Value$93.75
Current Price$34.50
Upside171.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.88%27.44%1.080.420.560.371.120.250.670.270.380.14
YoY Growth--155.99%-24.65%52.39%-67.15%345.36%-62.32%148.44%-28.57%161.03%50.59%
Dividend Yield--3.98%2.75%3.20%1.85%4.67%1.16%2.05%0.47%0.70%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)160.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.0520.0312.02
Cash Retained (M)35.8435.8435.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.05-20.03-12.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.7915.8123.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.67184.67184.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.69$161.74$172.58
Upside / Downside75.90%368.80%400.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)160.26170.67181.77193.58206.16219.56226.15
Payout Ratio77.63%80.11%82.58%85.05%87.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.41136.72150.10164.65180.45197.61209.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)126.92128.13129.33
Year 2 PV (M)129.36131.83134.31
Year 3 PV (M)131.73135.51139.36
Year 4 PV (M)134.03139.18144.48
Year 5 PV (M)136.26142.84149.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,891.144,079.094,274.22
Equity Value (M)4,549.444,756.574,971.38
Shares Outstanding (M)184.67184.67184.67
Fair Value$24.64$25.76$26.92
Upside / Downside-28.59%-25.34%-21.97%

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