Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Kings Resources Group Co.,Ltd. (603505.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.43 - $57.53$53.91
Multi-Stage$8.87 - $9.70$9.28
Blended Fair Value$31.60
Current Price$19.00
Upside66.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.78%39.85%0.390.160.130.090.090.050.030.020.020.02
YoY Growth--149.11%21.58%50.14%0.28%65.30%80.00%70.56%-12.54%18.60%19.22%
Dividend Yield--2.23%0.70%0.64%0.80%1.20%0.88%0.57%0.28%1.27%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)242.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.4630.2918.17
Cash Retained (M)107.33107.33107.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.46-30.29-18.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.8877.0589.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)837.63837.63837.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.43$53.91$57.53
Upside / Downside44.37%183.74%202.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)242.30258.04274.82292.68311.70331.97341.92
Payout Ratio55.70%62.56%69.42%76.28%83.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.96161.43190.78223.26259.15298.77316.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)150.31151.74153.16
Year 2 PV (M)165.40168.55171.73
Year 3 PV (M)180.22185.40190.67
Year 4 PV (M)194.79202.28209.98
Year 5 PV (M)209.10219.19229.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,529.486,844.857,172.30
Equity Value (M)7,429.307,772.018,127.52
Shares Outstanding (M)837.63837.63837.63
Fair Value$8.87$9.28$9.70
Upside / Downside-53.32%-51.17%-48.93%

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