Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. (603393.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$446.00 - $525.46$492.43
Multi-Stage$92.65 - $101.54$97.01
Blended Fair Value$294.72
Current Price$28.08
Upside949.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.69%9.38%1.270.910.670.570.670.670.640.270.280.23
YoY Growth--38.56%37.34%15.86%-14.28%0.52%4.06%141.36%-6.34%25.00%-56.13%
Dividend Yield--4.36%2.92%2.88%2.62%3.61%2.95%3.39%1.93%1.35%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,118.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)961.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)223.77139.8683.91
Cash Retained (M)961.96961.96961.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-223.77-139.86-83.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)738.19822.10878.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)423.46423.46423.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.741.942.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.741.942.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.112.312.44
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$446.00$492.43$525.46
Upside / Downside1,488.31%1,653.68%1,771.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,118.841,191.571,269.021,351.511,439.351,532.911,578.90
Payout Ratio14.02%29.22%44.41%59.61%74.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.88348.15563.61805.621,076.701,379.621,460.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)325.64328.72331.81
Year 2 PV (M)493.08502.48511.96
Year 3 PV (M)659.23678.16697.44
Year 4 PV (M)824.09855.79888.38
Year 5 PV (M)987.671,035.371,084.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,943.5637,679.6439,482.18
Equity Value (M)39,233.2741,080.1642,996.67
Shares Outstanding (M)423.46423.46423.46
Fair Value$92.65$97.01$101.54
Upside / Downside229.95%245.48%261.60%

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