Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Anhui Transport Consulting & Design Institute Co.,Ltd. (603357.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.06 - $45.12$27.10
Multi-Stage$12.26 - $13.41$12.82
Blended Fair Value$19.96
Current Price$8.38
Upside138.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.27%-9.44%0.380.460.400.210.180.240.160.130.070.14
YoY Growth---17.93%16.89%90.26%13.64%-24.88%51.85%20.02%99.35%-50.75%-86.69%
Dividend Yield--3.88%4.58%4.22%2.56%2.35%2.92%1.26%1.11%0.75%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)440.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)429.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.0755.0433.03
Cash Retained (M)429.31429.31429.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.07-55.04-33.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)341.24374.26396.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)543.58543.58543.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.690.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.06$27.10$45.12
Upside / Downside115.54%223.42%438.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)440.35468.97499.46531.92566.50603.32621.42
Payout Ratio2.51%20.01%37.50%55.00%72.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.0493.82187.32292.57410.72542.99574.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)85.0585.8586.66
Year 2 PV (M)153.91156.84159.80
Year 3 PV (M)217.90224.16230.53
Year 4 PV (M)277.27287.94298.90
Year 5 PV (M)332.27348.32364.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,596.315,866.616,147.26
Equity Value (M)6,662.716,969.727,288.14
Shares Outstanding (M)543.58543.58543.58
Fair Value$12.26$12.82$13.41
Upside / Downside46.27%53.00%60.00%

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