Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Longjie Special Fiber Co., Ltd. (603332.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.16 - $3.28$2.68
Multi-Stage$5.41 - $5.95$5.68
Blended Fair Value$4.18
Current Price$12.90
Upside-67.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.23%-0.61%0.150.080.160.080.330.380.000.150.450.27
YoY Growth--94.27%-53.33%100.00%-75.00%-14.29%8,266.97%-97.02%-66.06%65.25%73.40%
Dividend Yield--1.54%0.89%1.91%0.66%3.34%2.97%0.02%0.99%2.93%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.846.784.07
Cash Retained (M)6.776.776.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.84-6.78-4.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.08-0.012.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)218.84218.84218.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.61%-1.61%-0.61%
Fair Value$2.16$2.68$3.28
Upside / Downside-83.28%-79.20%-74.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.2153.3352.4851.6350.8049.9851.48
Payout Ratio87.52%88.01%88.51%89.01%89.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.4446.9446.4545.9645.4744.9847.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.61%-1.61%-0.61%
Year 1 PV (M)43.7044.1544.59
Year 2 PV (M)40.2541.0841.92
Year 3 PV (M)37.0738.2239.40
Year 4 PV (M)34.1435.5637.03
Year 5 PV (M)31.4433.0934.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)997.621,049.901,104.35
Equity Value (M)1,184.211,241.991,302.09
Shares Outstanding (M)218.84218.84218.84
Fair Value$5.41$5.68$5.95
Upside / Downside-58.05%-56.00%-53.88%

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