Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Hunan Meihu Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (603319.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.49 - $61.33$25.03
Multi-Stage$8.85 - $9.68$9.26
Blended Fair Value$17.14
Current Price$44.52
Upside-61.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.91%17.34%0.330.160.180.160.090.090.120.040.030.07
YoY Growth--102.41%-9.73%12.59%76.58%-2.01%-18.78%200.00%33.33%-60.23%7.61%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.31%1.61%1.61%0.73%1.24%1.53%0.42%0.19%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)150.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.0918.8011.28
Cash Retained (M)129.22129.22129.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.09-18.80-11.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)99.13110.42117.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)316.21316.21316.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.49$25.03$61.33
Upside / Downside-67.46%-43.78%37.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)150.43160.20170.62181.71193.52206.10212.28
Payout Ratio14.10%29.28%44.46%59.64%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.2146.9175.86108.37144.79185.49196.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.9243.3243.73
Year 2 PV (M)63.5064.7165.93
Year 3 PV (M)83.0085.3887.81
Year 4 PV (M)101.46105.36109.38
Year 5 PV (M)118.92124.67130.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,388.262,503.622,623.39
Equity Value (M)2,798.062,927.063,060.86
Shares Outstanding (M)316.21316.21316.21
Fair Value$8.85$9.26$9.68
Upside / Downside-80.12%-79.21%-78.26%

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