Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co., Ltd. (603308.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.32 - $103.10$96.61
Multi-Stage$27.74 - $30.43$29.06
Blended Fair Value$62.84
Current Price$32.52
Upside93.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS59.54%2.91%0.340.180.100.090.060.030.030.030.040.03
YoY Growth--89.10%73.53%15.16%53.09%78.67%21.43%5.00%-33.33%20.48%-87.42%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.23%0.52%0.64%0.31%0.34%0.33%0.24%0.29%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)353.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)190.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.7044.1926.51
Cash Retained (M)162.63162.63162.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.70-44.19-26.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.93118.44136.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)673.64673.64673.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate4.88%4.88%4.88%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Fair Value$65.32$96.61$103.10
Upside / Downside100.86%197.08%217.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)353.48371.89391.26411.63433.06455.61469.28
Payout Ratio53.99%61.19%68.40%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)190.86227.58267.60311.18358.57410.05434.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.88%4.88%4.88%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Year 1 PV (M)214.93217.00219.06
Year 2 PV (M)238.69243.30247.94
Year 3 PV (M)262.14269.76277.52
Year 4 PV (M)285.28296.39307.82
Year 5 PV (M)308.11323.18338.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,378.0518,228.0319,110.95
Equity Value (M)18,687.2019,577.6520,502.12
Shares Outstanding (M)673.64673.64673.64
Fair Value$27.74$29.06$30.43
Upside / Downside-14.70%-10.63%-6.41%

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