Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Seagull Cooling Tower Co.,Ltd. (603269.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.79 - $90.09$84.42
Multi-Stage$13.42 - $14.67$14.03
Blended Fair Value$49.23
Current Price$14.10
Upside249.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.72%13.75%0.290.200.200.170.130.090.120.050.070.08
YoY Growth--47.94%1.85%13.61%27.67%43.68%-19.32%114.02%-24.06%-5.83%-6.48%
Dividend Yield--3.64%2.81%3.43%3.41%3.61%2.12%2.02%0.61%1.71%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.2413.277.96
Cash Retained (M)31.0731.0731.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.24-13.27-7.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8317.7923.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.43234.43234.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.79$84.42$90.09
Upside / Downside160.95%498.75%538.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.19113.09120.44128.27136.61145.49149.86
Payout Ratio70.74%74.60%78.45%82.30%86.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.1284.3694.48105.57117.69130.94138.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)78.4479.1879.93
Year 2 PV (M)81.6983.2484.81
Year 3 PV (M)84.8687.3089.78
Year 4 PV (M)87.9791.3594.83
Year 5 PV (M)91.0095.4099.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,722.052,853.532,990.04
Equity Value (M)3,146.013,290.003,439.34
Shares Outstanding (M)234.43234.43234.43
Fair Value$13.42$14.03$14.67
Upside / Downside-4.82%-0.47%4.05%

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