Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Quectel Wireless Solutions Co., Ltd. (603236.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118.63 - $591.55$211.90
Multi-Stage$70.72 - $77.37$73.98
Blended Fair Value$142.94
Current Price$105.12
Upside35.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS115.48%87.04%0.621.070.550.340.200.010.010.000.010.00
YoY Growth---42.22%94.64%61.66%66.97%1,430.06%56.02%0.00%-100.00%212.42%37.10%
Dividend Yield--0.70%2.62%0.64%0.34%0.23%0.02%0.04%0.00%0.02%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)965.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)824.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)193.01120.6372.38
Cash Retained (M)824.52824.52824.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-193.01-120.63-72.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)631.51703.89752.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.17262.17262.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.682.87
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.682.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.943.223.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$118.63$211.90$591.55
Upside / Downside12.86%101.58%462.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)965.041,027.771,094.571,165.721,241.491,322.191,361.86
Payout Ratio14.56%29.65%44.74%59.82%74.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.52304.72489.68697.39930.031,189.971,259.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)279.20281.84284.49
Year 2 PV (M)411.07418.90426.80
Year 3 PV (M)536.39551.79567.48
Year 4 PV (M)655.40680.60706.53
Year 5 PV (M)768.33805.44843.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,889.7816,657.2717,454.12
Equity Value (M)18,540.1619,395.8320,283.38
Shares Outstanding (M)262.17262.17262.17
Fair Value$70.72$73.98$77.37
Upside / Downside-32.73%-29.62%-26.40%

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