Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

GoldenHome Living Co., Ltd. (603180.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$154.43 - $181.95$170.51
Multi-Stage$66.83 - $73.32$70.01
Blended Fair Value$120.26
Current Price$20.23
Upside494.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.49%36.05%0.830.701.040.590.380.420.340.150.090.09
YoY Growth--17.54%-32.76%77.47%52.95%-8.30%23.62%128.25%59.41%1.17%142.67%
Dividend Yield--4.45%3.07%2.82%1.82%0.74%1.42%0.81%0.18%0.46%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.8918.0510.83
Cash Retained (M)104.30104.30104.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.89-18.05-10.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.4186.2493.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.88157.88157.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$154.43$170.51$181.95
Upside / Downside663.38%742.86%799.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.44153.83163.83174.48185.82197.90203.83
Payout Ratio27.79%40.23%52.68%65.12%77.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.1461.8986.30113.61144.12178.11188.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58.7159.2659.82
Year 2 PV (M)77.6479.1280.61
Year 3 PV (M)96.9599.74102.57
Year 4 PV (M)116.65121.14125.75
Year 5 PV (M)136.74143.34150.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,065.0710,551.2211,055.97
Equity Value (M)10,551.7611,053.8211,574.93
Shares Outstanding (M)157.88157.88157.88
Fair Value$66.83$70.01$73.32
Upside / Downside230.38%246.09%262.41%

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