Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GUILIN FUDA Co.,Ltd. (603166.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.92 - $85.98$80.55
Multi-Stage$49.62 - $54.66$52.09
Blended Fair Value$66.32
Current Price$19.98
Upside231.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.14%5.52%0.210.130.530.210.170.180.230.240.110.21
YoY Growth--65.34%-76.19%148.67%24.69%-4.38%-23.30%-2.53%115.75%-46.92%71.28%
Dividend Yield--1.36%2.05%8.29%3.09%2.68%3.09%3.38%3.09%0.71%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)285.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.1835.7421.44
Cash Retained (M)205.96205.96205.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.18-35.74-21.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.78170.22184.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)634.88634.88634.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.42
WACC / Discount Rate-1.05%-1.05%-1.05%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Fair Value$72.92$80.55$85.98
Upside / Downside264.97%303.13%330.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)285.90292.21298.66305.25311.99318.88328.44
Payout Ratio27.96%40.37%52.78%65.18%77.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.94117.96157.62198.98242.08286.99303.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.05%-1.05%-1.05%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Year 1 PV (M)118.05119.22120.38
Year 2 PV (M)157.86160.99164.16
Year 3 PV (M)199.42205.39211.48
Year 4 PV (M)242.80252.54262.57
Year 5 PV (M)288.06302.57317.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,494.1332,030.7233,628.63
Equity Value (M)31,500.3233,071.4334,704.89
Shares Outstanding (M)634.88634.88634.88
Fair Value$49.62$52.09$54.66
Upside / Downside148.33%160.71%173.59%

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