Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Kehua Holdings Co., Ltd. (603161.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.16 - $95.62$89.61
Multi-Stage$55.55 - $60.97$58.21
Blended Fair Value$73.91
Current Price$13.21
Upside459.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.46%12.56%0.470.360.450.620.410.650.170.080.060.17
YoY Growth--27.92%-18.74%-28.10%52.07%-37.00%289.45%113.44%28.46%-64.53%20.39%
Dividend Yield--3.97%3.40%4.09%7.13%3.34%7.33%1.36%0.45%0.36%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4411.536.92
Cash Retained (M)71.9271.9271.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.44-11.53-6.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.4760.3965.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.81191.81191.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate2.14%2.14%2.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.16$89.61$95.62
Upside / Downside514.37%578.34%623.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.2298.22104.60111.40118.64126.35130.14
Payout Ratio22.02%35.61%49.21%62.81%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3034.9851.4769.9790.65113.72120.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.14%2.14%2.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.9234.2534.57
Year 2 PV (M)48.4249.3450.27
Year 3 PV (M)63.8365.6667.53
Year 4 PV (M)80.2083.2986.46
Year 5 PV (M)97.59102.30107.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,330.6110,829.5811,347.65
Equity Value (M)10,654.5811,164.4211,693.68
Shares Outstanding (M)191.81191.81191.81
Fair Value$55.55$58.21$60.97
Upside / Downside320.50%340.62%361.51%

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