Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. (603093.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.46 - $52.73$28.86
Multi-Stage$12.25 - $13.39$12.81
Blended Fair Value$20.84
Current Price$21.41
Upside-2.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.99%0.00%0.140.140.080.040.140.080.060.050.050.00
YoY Growth---4.14%79.96%95.41%-71.49%67.55%43.62%20.35%-4.17%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.99%1.34%0.66%0.29%0.92%0.39%0.84%0.70%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)451.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)383.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.2256.3933.83
Cash Retained (M)383.05383.05383.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.22-56.39-33.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)292.83326.66349.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)605.92605.92605.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.46$28.86$52.73
Upside / Downside-13.78%34.79%146.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)451.09480.41511.64544.89580.31618.03636.57
Payout Ratio15.08%30.07%45.05%60.03%75.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.04144.45230.50327.12435.33556.23588.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131.39132.64133.88
Year 2 PV (M)190.71194.35198.01
Year 3 PV (M)246.20253.27260.47
Year 4 PV (M)298.03309.49321.28
Year 5 PV (M)346.38363.11380.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,210.766,510.746,822.20
Equity Value (M)7,423.477,763.598,116.32
Shares Outstanding (M)605.92605.92605.92
Fair Value$12.25$12.81$13.39
Upside / Downside-42.78%-40.15%-37.44%

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