Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Heatwell Electric Heating Technology Co., Ltd. (603075.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.98 - $156.70$146.85
Multi-Stage$23.64 - $25.83$24.72
Blended Fair Value$85.78
Current Price$22.96
Upside273.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS10.08%0.00%0.510.310.320.260.370.320.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--67.18%-4.70%25.47%-30.26%15.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.38%1.53%0.82%0.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)317.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.4539.6623.79
Cash Retained (M)31.1831.1831.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.45-39.66-23.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)-32.27-8.477.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)402.64402.64402.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.98$146.85$156.70
Upside / Downside178.68%539.61%582.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)317.26337.88359.85383.24408.15434.68447.72
Payout Ratio90.17%90.14%90.10%90.07%90.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286.08304.56324.23345.18367.47391.21414.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)283.18285.87288.55
Year 2 PV (M)280.31285.65291.04
Year 3 PV (M)277.47285.44293.55
Year 4 PV (M)274.66285.22296.09
Year 5 PV (M)271.88285.01298.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,131.758,524.518,932.31
Equity Value (M)9,519.259,951.7010,400.19
Shares Outstanding (M)402.64402.64402.64
Fair Value$23.64$24.72$25.83
Upside / Downside2.97%7.65%12.50%

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