Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited (603043.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.41 - $173.60$162.69
Multi-Stage$24.22 - $26.48$25.33
Blended Fair Value$94.01
Current Price$16.13
Upside482.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.10%7.98%0.500.430.420.280.220.280.250.340.310.14
YoY Growth--16.39%4.01%48.55%28.06%-23.13%14.29%-27.38%10.00%122.22%-40.00%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.43%1.41%1.35%0.81%1.44%1.15%2.63%2.30%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)495.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)208.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.0561.9137.14
Cash Retained (M)208.90208.90208.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.05-61.91-37.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.85146.99171.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.37567.37567.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.41$162.69$173.60
Upside / Downside268.31%908.61%976.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)495.26527.45561.73598.25637.13678.55698.90
Payout Ratio57.82%64.26%70.69%77.13%83.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286.36338.92397.10461.42532.41610.69646.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)314.54317.52320.50
Year 2 PV (M)342.02348.54355.11
Year 3 PV (M)368.82379.41390.20
Year 4 PV (M)394.96410.15425.77
Year 5 PV (M)420.43440.74461.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,900.0412,474.8213,071.59
Equity Value (M)13,740.8114,371.1715,025.00
Shares Outstanding (M)567.37567.37567.37
Fair Value$24.22$25.33$26.48
Upside / Downside50.15%57.03%64.18%

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