Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Carthane Co.,Ltd. (603037.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.93 - $85.92$80.52
Multi-Stage$61.75 - $67.75$64.69
Blended Fair Value$72.61
Current Price$13.89
Upside422.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.51%12.78%0.350.310.310.310.290.390.370.280.270.09
YoY Growth--11.32%0.05%-0.38%9.18%-27.31%7.07%32.37%3.70%200.00%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--2.91%2.08%4.23%4.55%4.54%6.50%4.28%2.84%1.64%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4510.916.54
Cash Retained (M)18.5818.5818.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.45-10.91-6.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.137.6812.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.94201.94201.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.93$80.52$85.92
Upside / Downside425.03%479.70%518.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.2592.9298.96105.39112.24119.54123.12
Payout Ratio78.70%80.96%83.22%85.48%87.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.6675.2382.3590.0998.48107.58113.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)76.0276.7477.46
Year 2 PV (M)84.1085.7087.32
Year 3 PV (M)92.9695.6398.35
Year 4 PV (M)102.69106.64110.70
Year 5 PV (M)113.37118.84124.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,001.0112,580.6713,182.51
Equity Value (M)12,470.1513,064.2213,680.86
Shares Outstanding (M)201.94201.94201.94
Fair Value$61.75$64.69$67.75
Upside / Downside344.57%365.75%387.73%

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