Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dawning Information Industry Co., Ltd. (603019.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.29 - $58.23$38.82
Multi-Stage$19.92 - $21.76$20.82
Blended Fair Value$29.82
Current Price$119.25
Upside-74.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.67%22.58%0.210.340.200.150.120.150.130.100.070.04
YoY Growth---39.01%74.38%27.94%25.13%-15.01%8.84%34.55%44.79%56.40%59.60%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.70%0.52%0.52%0.43%0.47%0.41%0.35%0.51%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,105.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)411.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,694.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.19263.24157.95
Cash Retained (M)1,694.611,694.611,694.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.19-263.24-157.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,273.421,431.371,536.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,458.811,458.811,458.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.29$38.82$58.23
Upside / Downside-77.12%-67.45%-51.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,105.952,242.832,388.622,543.882,709.232,885.332,971.89
Payout Ratio19.53%33.63%47.72%61.81%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)411.33754.171,139.831,572.442,056.482,596.802,749.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)679.38685.82692.26
Year 2 PV (M)924.98942.60960.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,149.521,182.521,216.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,354.291,406.371,459.94
Year 5 PV (M)1,540.541,614.951,692.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,413.5024,544.3825,718.54
Equity Value (M)29,062.2130,376.6431,739.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,458.811,458.811,458.81
Fair Value$19.92$20.82$21.76
Upside / Downside-83.29%-82.54%-81.76%

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