Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Beite Technology Co., Ltd. (603009.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.35 - $59.86$19.27
Multi-Stage$6.24 - $6.82$6.52
Blended Fair Value$12.90
Current Price$55.13
Upside-76.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.92%0.00%0.160.160.180.110.100.160.170.050.130.12
YoY Growth--1.85%-12.52%63.16%17.52%-38.73%-5.97%234.87%-61.19%3.15%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.37%1.00%2.73%1.81%1.78%2.37%2.07%0.43%0.65%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)103.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.6612.917.75
Cash Retained (M)42.6742.6742.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.66-12.91-7.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0129.7534.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)343.21343.21343.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.35$19.27$59.86
Upside / Downside-81.23%-65.04%8.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)103.30110.01117.16124.78132.89141.53145.77
Payout Ratio58.70%64.96%71.22%77.48%83.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.6371.4683.4496.67111.28127.37134.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65.5766.1966.81
Year 2 PV (M)70.2671.6072.95
Year 3 PV (M)74.7076.8479.02
Year 4 PV (M)78.9081.9385.05
Year 5 PV (M)82.8786.8791.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,770.311,855.821,944.60
Equity Value (M)2,142.592,239.242,339.45
Shares Outstanding (M)343.21343.21343.21
Fair Value$6.24$6.52$6.82
Upside / Downside-88.68%-88.17%-87.64%

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