Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Northern United Publishing & Media (Group) Company Limited (601999.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.30 - $1.82$1.56
Multi-Stage$2.41 - $2.65$2.53
Blended Fair Value$2.04
Current Price$6.93
Upside-70.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.74%5.97%0.060.040.060.080.070.100.080.040.040.04
YoY Growth--47.60%-25.55%-26.42%5.02%-25.45%25.00%87.23%0.36%9.45%9.71%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.62%0.77%1.16%1.26%1.52%1.14%0.56%0.39%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.0616.9110.15
Cash Retained (M)110.54110.54110.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.06-16.91-10.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.4893.62100.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)623.78623.78623.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Fair Value$1.30$1.56$1.82
Upside / Downside-81.25%-77.52%-73.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.28130.96126.78122.73118.82115.02118.47
Payout Ratio18.29%32.63%46.98%61.32%75.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7542.7459.5675.2689.89103.52109.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)38.9539.3539.76
Year 2 PV (M)49.4650.5051.54
Year 3 PV (M)56.9558.7560.59
Year 4 PV (M)61.9964.6267.33
Year 5 PV (M)65.0668.5272.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,229.431,294.941,363.22
Equity Value (M)1,501.831,576.691,654.59
Shares Outstanding (M)623.78623.78623.78
Fair Value$2.41$2.53$2.65
Upside / Downside-65.26%-63.53%-61.72%

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