Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.,Ltd. (601689.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260.62 - $307.05$287.75
Multi-Stage$208.24 - $228.53$218.20
Blended Fair Value$252.97
Current Price$80.99
Upside212.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.17%7.66%0.450.370.220.120.120.190.010.010.230.07
YoY Growth--21.61%63.49%91.59%-5.93%-32.94%1,161.02%61.04%-95.96%223.75%-67.22%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.84%0.51%0.30%0.54%1.65%0.15%0.09%1.46%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,733.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,020.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,712.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)546.62341.64204.98
Cash Retained (M)1,712.201,712.201,712.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-546.62-341.64-204.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,165.581,370.571,507.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.191,770.191,770.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.770.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.770.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate-0.95%-0.95%-0.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$260.62$287.75$307.05
Upside / Downside221.79%255.30%279.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,733.102,910.753,099.943,301.443,516.033,744.583,856.91
Payout Ratio37.35%47.88%58.41%68.94%79.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,020.891,393.731,810.732,276.052,794.213,370.123,567.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.95%-0.95%-0.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,393.901,407.111,420.32
Year 2 PV (M)1,811.161,845.651,880.48
Year 3 PV (M)2,276.852,342.212,408.81
Year 4 PV (M)2,795.522,903.033,013.61
Year 5 PV (M)3,372.103,534.973,704.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)356,973.81374,215.78392,117.63
Equity Value (M)368,623.34386,248.76404,544.94
Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.191,770.191,770.19
Fair Value$208.24$218.20$228.53
Upside / Downside157.12%169.41%182.17%

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