Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhewen Pictures Group co.,ltd (601599.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.67 - $0.96$0.81
Multi-Stage$1.02 - $1.12$1.07
Blended Fair Value$0.94
Current Price$3.58
Upside-73.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.57%-17.41%0.010.010.020.040.090.060.140.140.110.09
YoY Growth---9.46%-48.27%-44.69%-54.77%47.89%-58.21%1.33%23.63%28.38%26.68%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.30%0.69%1.17%2.84%2.20%3.78%2.03%1.40%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.0915.069.04
Cash Retained (M)113.31113.31113.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.09-15.06-9.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.2298.25104.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,233.201,233.201,233.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.67$0.81$0.96
Upside / Downside-81.33%-77.40%-73.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.47119.27118.07116.89115.72114.57118.00
Payout Ratio5.94%22.75%39.56%56.38%73.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.1627.1446.7165.9084.70103.11109.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24.5424.7925.04
Year 2 PV (M)38.2138.9939.78
Year 3 PV (M)48.7450.2551.79
Year 4 PV (M)56.6559.0061.42
Year 5 PV (M)62.3765.6269.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,022.101,075.321,130.74
Equity Value (M)1,252.611,313.971,377.77
Shares Outstanding (M)1,233.201,233.201,233.20
Fair Value$1.02$1.07$1.12
Upside / Downside-71.63%-70.24%-68.79%

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