Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Joeone Co., Ltd. (601566.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.74 - $3.70$3.23
Multi-Stage$9.03 - $10.01$9.51
Blended Fair Value$6.37
Current Price$8.65
Upside-26.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.09%-7.71%0.310.120.530.530.671.031.011.010.500.99
YoY Growth--156.75%-77.11%0.06%-19.83%-35.11%1.84%0.09%99.49%-49.23%41.91%
Dividend Yield--3.70%1.21%5.16%5.16%5.96%9.95%6.93%6.83%2.97%6.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)351.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.2643.9126.35
Cash Retained (M)175.56175.56175.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.26-43.91-26.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)105.30131.65149.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)577.87577.87577.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-9.71%-8.71%-7.71%
Fair Value$2.74$3.23$3.70
Upside / Downside-68.36%-62.68%-57.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)351.31320.71292.78267.28244.00222.75229.43
Payout Ratio50.03%58.02%66.02%74.01%82.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.75186.08193.28197.82200.09200.48212.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-9.71%-8.71%-7.71%
Year 1 PV (M)173.08174.99176.91
Year 2 PV (M)167.21170.94174.70
Year 3 PV (M)159.18164.53169.99
Year 4 PV (M)149.76156.51163.48
Year 5 PV (M)139.56147.46155.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,430.194,681.014,943.07
Equity Value (M)5,218.985,495.445,783.87
Shares Outstanding (M)577.87577.87577.87
Fair Value$9.03$9.51$10.01
Upside / Downside4.41%9.94%15.71%

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