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Definitive Analysis

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Industrial Securities Co.,Ltd. (601377.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.85 - $74.97$30.74
Multi-Stage$9.79 - $10.71$10.25
Blended Fair Value$20.49
Current Price$6.54
Upside213.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.58%26.01%0.380.330.380.390.340.370.470.350.260.14
YoY Growth--13.66%-13.42%-3.17%16.27%-7.09%-22.75%35.74%33.81%81.66%284.72%
Dividend Yield--6.40%5.96%6.25%5.36%4.19%6.09%6.70%5.52%3.54%1.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,365.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,854.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,510.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)673.02420.63252.38
Cash Retained (M)1,510.511,510.511,510.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-673.02-420.63-252.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)837.491,089.871,258.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,863.088,863.088,863.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Fair Value$14.85$30.74$74.97
Upside / Downside127.00%369.98%1,046.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,365.083,557.923,761.803,977.374,205.304,446.284,579.67
Payout Ratio55.11%62.09%69.07%76.04%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,854.572,209.102,598.183,024.593,491.344,001.664,236.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)2,047.482,067.032,086.58
Year 2 PV (M)2,231.912,274.732,317.97
Year 3 PV (M)2,408.122,477.762,548.73
Year 4 PV (M)2,576.362,676.182,778.87
Year 5 PV (M)2,736.892,870.083,008.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,802.0278,442.0382,222.40
Equity Value (M)86,802.7890,807.8294,962.94
Shares Outstanding (M)8,863.088,863.088,863.08
Fair Value$9.79$10.25$10.71
Upside / Downside49.75%56.66%63.83%

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