Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hongta Securities Co., Ltd. (601236.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.72 - $41.18$38.59
Multi-Stage$5.69 - $6.22$5.95
Blended Fair Value$22.27
Current Price$8.83
Upside152.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.30%18.29%0.180.120.170.250.220.070.010.120.140.07
YoY Growth--42.52%-29.38%-28.87%11.33%216.14%526.92%-91.08%-9.83%111.45%99.70%
Dividend Yield--2.25%1.71%2.02%2.37%1.74%0.39%0.25%2.80%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)976.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)934.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.30122.0673.24
Cash Retained (M)42.1142.1142.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.30-122.06-73.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-153.19-79.95-31.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,716.234,716.234,716.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.72$38.59$41.18
Upside / Downside44.10%337.02%366.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)976.501,039.971,107.571,179.561,256.231,337.891,378.02
Payout Ratio95.69%94.55%93.41%92.28%91.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)934.39983.291,034.611,088.441,144.901,204.101,274.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)911.42920.05928.69
Year 2 PV (M)888.88905.81922.90
Year 3 PV (M)866.77891.65917.01
Year 4 PV (M)845.08877.58911.01
Year 5 PV (M)823.81863.60904.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,515.0023,602.4824,731.58
Equity Value (M)26,850.9628,061.1829,316.11
Shares Outstanding (M)4,716.234,716.234,716.23
Fair Value$5.69$5.95$6.22
Upside / Downside-35.52%-32.62%-29.60%

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