Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing Sifang Automation Co.,Ltd (601126.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.76 - $192.89$180.77
Multi-Stage$27.85 - $30.44$29.12
Blended Fair Value$104.95
Current Price$20.19
Upside419.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.58%15.61%0.600.600.490.950.170.170.190.200.190.14
YoY Growth---0.15%23.00%-48.98%473.19%-2.13%-10.42%-6.36%9.36%30.17%1.59%
Dividend Yield--3.52%3.88%3.35%7.38%2.05%2.86%2.82%2.92%1.78%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)810.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)599.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.09101.3060.78
Cash Retained (M)210.47210.47210.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.09-101.30-60.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.39109.17149.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)835.55835.55835.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.130.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.130.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.76$180.77$192.89
Upside / Downside250.46%795.35%855.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)810.43863.11919.21978.961,042.591,110.361,143.67
Payout Ratio74.03%77.22%80.42%83.61%86.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)599.95666.52739.20818.52905.03999.321,057.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)619.05624.92630.79
Year 2 PV (M)637.66649.81662.07
Year 3 PV (M)655.80674.63693.81
Year 4 PV (M)673.47699.37726.01
Year 5 PV (M)690.67724.03758.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,993.6220,959.3221,961.98
Equity Value (M)23,270.2824,332.0825,433.32
Shares Outstanding (M)835.55835.55835.55
Fair Value$27.85$29.12$30.44
Upside / Downside37.94%44.23%50.76%

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