Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sanjiang Shopping Club Co.,Ltd (601116.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.69 - $2.40$2.04
Multi-Stage$2.84 - $3.11$2.97
Blended Fair Value$2.50
Current Price$14.77
Upside-83.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.92%0.200.200.200.200.200.200.150.150.150.15
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%0.00%-0.63%0.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.77%2.16%1.32%2.39%2.15%1.52%1.11%0.73%0.51%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1917.0010.20
Cash Retained (M)26.4326.4326.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.19-17.00-10.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.779.4316.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)547.76547.76547.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.69$2.04$2.40
Upside / Downside-88.59%-86.20%-83.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.96134.60133.26131.92130.60129.30133.18
Payout Ratio80.56%82.45%84.34%86.23%88.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.54110.98112.39113.75115.08116.37123.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)100.28101.31102.33
Year 2 PV (M)91.7793.6595.55
Year 3 PV (M)83.9386.5289.17
Year 4 PV (M)76.7379.9183.18
Year 5 PV (M)70.1173.7677.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,133.371,192.391,253.84
Equity Value (M)1,556.191,627.541,701.64
Shares Outstanding (M)547.76547.76547.76
Fair Value$2.84$2.97$3.11
Upside / Downside-80.77%-79.88%-78.97%

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