Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade (Group) Co., Ltd. (601086.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.07 - $20.17$18.87
Multi-Stage$85.97 - $95.82$90.78
Blended Fair Value$54.83
Current Price$10.85
Upside405.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.20%5.53%0.170.090.090.580.090.190.090.000.140.11
YoY Growth--78.90%0.00%-83.87%520.00%-50.00%100.00%0.00%-100.00%24.41%15.66%
Dividend Yield--3.64%1.89%2.09%14.03%1.98%3.81%1.47%0.00%3.10%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.6710.426.25
Cash Retained (M)30.5230.5230.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.67-10.42-6.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.8520.1024.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)709.35709.35709.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate-39.36%-39.36%-39.36%
Growth Rate-9.25%-8.25%-7.25%
Fair Value$17.07$18.87$20.17
Upside / Downside57.29%73.93%85.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.3776.5070.1964.4059.0954.2255.84
Payout Ratio63.39%68.71%74.03%79.36%84.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.8552.5651.9651.1050.0448.7951.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-39.36%-39.36%-39.36%
Growth Rate-9.25%-8.25%-7.25%
Year 1 PV (M)85.7386.6787.62
Year 2 PV (M)138.23141.29144.39
Year 3 PV (M)221.73229.14236.72
Year 4 PV (M)354.07369.94386.33
Year 5 PV (M)563.18594.90628.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,618.4762,976.2866,483.71
Equity Value (M)60,981.4064,398.2267,966.79
Shares Outstanding (M)709.35709.35709.35
Fair Value$85.97$90.78$95.82
Upside / Downside692.33%736.72%783.09%

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